Even though Hurricane Lowell’s forecasted path appears to be pulling westward, residents shouldn’t be complacent, warn state and county officials.
National Weather Service Warning Coordination Meteorologist John Bravender said Friday that Lowell is continuing westward south of Hawai‘i, and is expected to make its northward turn around late Saturday or early Sunday.
“Any time you see a sharp turn like this in a hurricane track, it’s uncertain as to both where exactly it occurs and when exactly it occurs,” Bravender said. “For us, later is better. Later means it keeps going west and turns north later and tracks north farther west of the state.”
Current preliminary models by the National Weather Service show a trajectory where the eye of the storm passes to the west of Ni‘ihau. However, Bravender said there is still a wide margin for error in predicting the movement of a storm four days out, and that the heart of the storm could move an average of 150 miles off the projected course.
Even if Lowell maintains its predicted path, its winds will still reach Hawai‘i. Bravender said Lowell’s northward movement will expose it to high wind shear, which will reduce the hurricane’s power but also expand its wind field.
Consequently, Gov. Josh Green said Friday that emergency preparations are being made statewide, particularly in Kaua‘i County. Green said the Agribusiness Development Corporation is monitoring reservoirs on Kaua‘i in anticipation of high winds and rainfall, while the Department of Health will open hurricane refuge centers on Kaua‘i.
Kaua‘i Mayor Derek Kawakami said he is in constant communication with the Robinson family — the owners of the island of Ni‘ihau — and added that he has “supreme confidence” that the island’s small population is well-prepared for Lowell.
“Our Ni‘ihauans are extremely resilient,” Kawakami said. “In fact, the Robinson family has come to our assistance more times than they’ve ever asked for help.”
Nonetheless, Green said the state Department of Human Services will keep hotel rooms available on Kaua‘i in case any Ni‘ihau residents need to relocate temporarily.
Maj. Gen. Stephen Logan, Adjutant General of the State of Hawai‘i Department of Defense, said 146 Hawai‘i National Guard personnel are standing by throughout the Islands, with more to come over the weekend. On Kaua‘i, 20 National Guard personnel are there already, with another 16 to come on Saturday, while several high-water vehicles and a potable water trailer have been brought to the island as well.
Green on Thursday signed an emergency proclamation in advance of Lowell authorizing the activation of the National Guard as needed to support disaster relief operations, and streamlines the process to secure and distribute resources among state agencies.
The emergency proclamation extends through Nov. 1, unless Green chooses to terminate it early. Therefore, the proclamation also covers potential impacts from Hurricane Karina, which approaches the state from the northeast, and Hurricane Marie, which is distantly to the east, near Baja California.
Bravender said Karina is expected to steadily weaken over the weekend and likely dissipate after Monday, without substantial impacts to the state beyond high surf on east-facing shores.
Kawakami said surf conditions this weekend are for expert surfers only, as Lowell brings powerful swells to south- and west-facing shores statewide.
Bravender said there is the possibility of intensely heavy rainfall this weekend, but estimates are still uncertain; he gave a ballpark estimate of about four to six inches of rain, with Kaua‘i and the Big Island getting about 10 inches of rain.
Kawakami said the approach of Lowell may bring traumatic memories of 1992’s Hurricane Iniki, the most powerful recorded storm to strike the state. He recommended that anyone feeling anxious to call the Hawai‘i CARES helpline at 988.
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