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Kady Pascual

Hawaiʻi Scene on Social

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Chardonnay.Music

<title>Hawai‘i Scene on Social: Fruitful tree</title>

Today’s social media find comes from @Chardonnay.Music, with a tasty snack she found in her backyard.

Hawai‘i Scene on Social: Fruitful tree

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Michael Brestovansky

Government & Politics

Business & Tourism

A new University of Hawai‘i economic forecast predicts a difficult next few years as recession looms.

Carl Bonham, executive director of the University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization, described a newly released third-quarter economic forecast as “bleak,” with multiple national and global factors driving down the state’s prospects.

[{"type":"text","text":"“The risks seem stacked against us,” Bonham said."}]

The forecast, released Friday, predicts a “mild recession” in the state over the next year as tourism falters: “not too deep or not too long,” Bonham said, with the worst impacts expected toward the end of 2026 before a gradual recovery over the following years.

Bonham said the state has been relying on domestic tourism, with international tourism still having not quite recovered from the impacts of Covid-19 and the Lahaina fires. But as the U.S. economy weakens, Mainland tourism has seen a sharp downturn. By mid-2026, UHERO predicts 5% fewer tourist arrivals than at the end of 2024, with quarterly tourist spending expected to fall by more than $600 million.

At the same time, tariffs proposed by President Donald Trump’s administration have left businesses feeling “overwhelming uncertainty,” Bonham said. He said some businesses are unable to get any quotes for materials more than three months out because nobody can predict how much more anything will cost that far away.

UHERO predicts that, by the end of 2026, “tariffs will have raised Hawai‘i prices by about 1.5% over what they would otherwise have been. This will represent a permanent annual cost of perhaps $1,400 for a median-income household.”

Compounding the issue is the loss of unauthorized immigrant labor, which will continue to increase the price of produce. Between the impact of immigration crackdowns and impacts of tariffs, UHERO forecasts an inflation peak of about 4% at the end of 2026 — which, UHERO notes, is a lower peak than previous predictions, thanks to recent reductions to inflation. 

[{"type":"text","text":"But UHERO predicts broader losses across the entire labor market. "}]

"Job losses will be seen across virtually all local industries," the forecast warns, expecting about 2,400 job losses among federal workers alone. As cuts to federal contracts compound and the tourism industry shrinks, knock-on impacts will spread across the state's private sector.

Hawai‘i employment is still about 15,000 jobs below pre-pandemic levels, and Bonham said that this year’s estimated job growth is predicted to stand at about 0.7%.

“The number of jobs in Hawai‘i basically hasn’t changed since January,” Bonham said.

Bonham said it isn’t only bad new across the board. The construction industry, he said, is expected to be the only sector in the state to grow during the recession, with the redevelopment of Aloha Stadium, the construction of the last leg of Skyline, and other military construction projects expected to bring nearly 40,000 jobs over the next five years.

Even so, the jobs gained by construction will hardly offset the total job losses predicted statewide. By the end of 2026, the UHERO report predicts about 1,000 additional construction jobs compared to this year — and more than 5,000 jobs lost in other sectors, primarily in government positions.

Through all of this, Bonham said there are some potential off-ramps. For example, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on whether the Trump administration tariffs are legal in November. Depending on that verdict, he said, the worst of the tariffs may not go into effect, staving off the worst impacts of the recession.

But Bonham was not optimistic. Even if the tariffs are partially reversed, there is no guarantee that the Trump administration can’t reintroduce them in different forms — once again leaving businesses uncertain about the future.

“There is a possibility that some of the new threats at the federal level will convince Democrats to come to the table and we avoid a government shutdown,” Bonham said. “I think the biggest off-ramp is … the U.S. economy bouncing back. With all these investments in AI infrastructure … maybe the U.S. economy will surprise everybody.

“What could help is if the very wealthy continue to thrive,” Bonham said. “The top end of the income distribution contributes enormously to visitor spending here.”   

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Hawaii A2003147 2110 250m

<title>"Bleak" economic report predicts recession</title>

UHERO forecast warns about rising costs, stagnant jobs as tariffs and federal government job cuts continue.

"Bleak" economic report predicts recession

Kelsey Kukaua Medeiros Headshot

Kelsey Kukaua Medeiros

A third-quarter forecast released Friday by the 

University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization

 predicts that "a mild Hawai‘i recession [is] imminent."

Amid tariff hikes, inflation and payroll stalls, UHERO highlights the booming construction industry on Oʻahu and Maui as the sole bright spots. For example, "ongoing Skyline work and Aloha Stadium redevelopment will sustain industry employment near 40,000 jobs," UHERO noted, through the end of 2030 with "tariffs on the cost of materials" cited as one possible risk to the sector.

But that’s not the only sector projected to be hard-hit. Health care providers nationwide are reviewing the Fiscal Year 2025 Reconciliation Act, also known as the 

, signed into law by President Trump on July 4.

According to the UHERO report, “The budget reconciliation bill cuts federal Medicaid and American Care Act marketplace funding by an estimated $1.1 trillion and 

 by $187 billion over fiscal years 2025 to 2034. 

“The Congressional Budget Office estimated that OBBBA would lead to 10 million Americans losing health insurance by 2034 and 2.4 million losing SNAP benefits. In Hawai

i, where more than 400,000 residents participate in Medicaid, over 160,000 receive SNAP benefits, and 43,000 households receive both, these changes could impact a large segment of the population, with potential ripple effects across the state’s economy.”

 also projects that 41,000 Hawaiʻi residents will lose Medicaid benefits. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimates that 22,000 people in households with school-aged children and 8,000 in households with no children could lose SNAP benefits.

Though state tax relief in 2026 will provide some income support to local families, the potential cuts "will be a growing weight" starting January 2027, UHERO warns in the report.

Carl Bonham, UHERO Executive Director, said during a Thursday news conference that the Medicaid cuts could still be avoided. Congressional Democrats are developing a bill that would drop the cuts from the OBBBA before they go into effect at the end of 2026.

But if that doesn't happen, Bonham said, "Hawaiʻi could face a loss of $400 million in Medicaid spending."

Bonham added that small or rural health care providers could be the most at risk from that loss, particularly on Neighbor Islands. UHERO assistant professor Steven Bond-Smith noted that a loss of funding to rural providers on Neighbor Islands could open holes in health care services where people will be forced to travel to Oʻahu for treatment.

“These new requirements for safety net programs are likely to disproportionately affect Hawaiʻi given the state’s large concentration of low-wage, service-sector jobs. Moreover, cuts to Medicaid and SNAP benefits under the OBBBA could produce economic ripple effects,” UHERO wrote. “Reduced access to Medicaid would lead to poorer health outcomes and increased reliance on emergency care, and strain the finances of health care providers serving newly uninsured patients. The loss of SNAP benefits would also cause households to tighten their belts, reducing demand for groceries and other local goods and services. Nonprofits and government agencies may face new pressures as more residents turn to them for assistance.”

Are you a Hawaiʻi-based nonprofit or health organization that will be or has already been directly impacted by federal cuts to Medicaid? Please reach out to kelsey@alohastatedaily.com to schedule an interview. I want to hear and share your creative strategies and solutions.

UH Manoa West Maui wellness fest consultation

<title>UHERO: ʻHawaiʻi could face a loss of $400 million in Medicaid spendingʻ</title>

A third-quarter forecast released Friday by the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization notes that proposed federal cuts to SNAP and Medicaid benefits will impact thousands of low-income families across the Islands, especially those in rural areas. Though state tax relief in 2026 will provide some income support, the potential cuts "will be a growing weight" come 2027, UHERO warns.

UHERO: ʻHawaiʻi could face a loss of $400 million in Medicaid spendingʻ

Christian Shimabuku Headshot

Christian Shimabuku

Sports

The signs are ubiquitous at Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs, home of the Air Force Academy's football team. 

Situated 6,621 feet above sea level, signs across the stadium are shown as a form of 

psychological warfare towards opponents. 

"Air Force will let you know at every turn on a wall, they'll let you know how high (the altitude) is and what the cause and effect of the elevation is," said 

, who is making the trip for the first time as Hawai‘i's head coach but was an assistant on a Nevada squad that went and won in 2018. "For us, it's just mental focus, being mentally tough, and going out there for what we need to do."

The Rainbow Warriors were pushed hard with extra running in Wednesday's practice at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex before departing for Colorado on Thursday morning. 

Hawai‘i, which turned the ball over four times in a 

 on Saturday, will emphasize taking care of the ball against an Air Force squad that runs a triple option offense, possessing the ball for 37 minutes and 15 seconds per game, good for third most in the country. 

"Air Force, it's a different style of game," Chang said. "Game management comes into play. And so, understanding what your opponent does, can do, will do, it all comes in (to consideration), and so we got to be better on offense, one, taking care of the football, and two, converting and punching the ball and making sure that we stay on track."

If anyone knows how to have success against Air Force, both as a player and coach, it's Chris Brown. 

Brown, who racked up 19 tackles and a forced fumble in a 52-30 win over Air Force as a UH standout on Nov. 24, 2001, also had a large hand in the defensive gameplanning in Hawai‘i's 27-13 upset victory over Air Force on Nov. 11, 2023. Air Force, which entered the 2023 game as the country's rushing leader, was held to 83.2 yards below their average. Meanwhile, the UH defense forced three interceptions and a fumble. 

Brown, the associate head coach of his alma mater, made sure the Rainbow Warriors know what they're stepping into on Saturday. Hawai‘i has not played at Air Force since Oct. 22, 2016, a 34-27 overtime victory for the 'Bows. 

"We showed them all the pictures of all the different signs, all the altitude and how the altitude can cause you to have a coma or death," Brown said. "And we literally told these players this is just to trick you and to play mind tricks on you. Everything's in your head. 

"We're going to work as hard as we can during the week, and we're going to get a lot of conditioning in, and when it's time to go out there and perform, we're going to perform. At the end of the day, we have to bring our best game, and it's going to be a physical, physical game, and something I love."

Mind over matter has been a key tenet in the Hawai‘i defense under Brown and defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman. The Rainbow Warriors held Fresno State to 109 yards of rushing while producing a safety via De'Jon Benton, as well as a 37-yard touchdown return from Jamih Otis. 

"We're gonna have to bring our best game that we possibly can," Brown says of Saturday. "We did a good job on defense (against Fresno State), but like coach Thurman said, it's not good enough. You have to go look at your mistakes and go fix the mistakes, and you cannot be satisfied with a good game. Perfection is what we're striving for. These boys are still hungry to be great."

Chris Brown 092525

<title>Hawai‘i football brushing aside mind games ahead of game at Air Force</title>

The Rainbow Warriors will play at Air Force on Saturday, which features a stadium 6,621 feet above sea level.

Hawai‘i football brushing aside mind games ahead of game at Air Force

Kam Napier Headshot

A. Kam Napier

Columnists

 that Gov. Josh Green has issued an emergency order defying new guidance from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration regarding administering Moderna’s new Spikevax vaccine for Covid-19. 

In brief, the FDA recently revoked its emergency authorization of an older Moderna Covid vaccine and set new age limits on administering the new Spikevax mRNA product: it is now “approved for use in individuals who are 65 years of age and older, or 6 months through 64 years of age with at least one underlying condition that puts them at high risk for severe outcomes from Covid-19.”

That quote comes from the FDA’s Aug. 27 revocation letter. You can read the letter, and the memo justifying the action, archived at the FDA’s website 

Green’s emergency “Proclamation Relating to Pharmacist-Provided Vaccine Serves” asserts that the FDA “has not provided any evidence that the Covid-19 vaccine poses any more risk of harm” to people in the excluded ages. Therefore, Green is taking up the recommendations of the West Coast Health Alliance, which is a hui of Democrat administrations in California, Hawai‘i, Oregon and Washington formed this month, to defy federal health agencies of the Trump administration. Under his proclamation, Hawai‘i pharmacists are allowed to disregard the FDA guidelines and administer the Covid vaccine to children as young as age 3, whether they have an underlying medical condition or not.

There’s a lot to unpack here. Our first call was the state Attorney General’s office to ask for an explanation of Green’s authority to defy federal rule-making.

[{"type":"text","text":"The AG punted. No explanation given."}]

Instead, the AG referred us to the state Department of Health. The DOH, as we reported yesterday, loves the proclamation. State Epidemiologist Sarah Kemble, in an 

, repeated the governor’s assertion that FDA provided no evidence for the change and insisted there’s “a big body of evidence” that Covid vaccinations have more benefits than the risks.

I’ve read the governor’s proclamation in full, and the FDA’s Aug. 27 letter and memorandum. Maybe Green and Kemble have not, because their arguments are talking right past the FDA’s argument.

What the FDA said is that the vaccines had been authorized in response to an emergency … and the emergency is over. Therefore, the vaccine is, rather than unsafe in any unusual fashion, simply unnecessary for categories of people, but still very much recommended for other categories with higher risk factors for Covid. And contrary to Green’s claim the FDA provided no evidence, the FDA memo does cite publications backing its assertions, see the memo at the link above.

If there’s a document that makes claims without evidence, it is actually Green’s own proclamation.

That’s hardly the only problem with the poses, arguments and attitudes on display in the proclamation. Here are some that stand out for me, maybe others stand out for you. The document is available 

“WHEREAS, on January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a public health emergency of international concern,” the proclamation begins.

Yes. That was five years ago. As the FDA states in its new guidance, the emergency is over. I can see where Green and others would love to keep it going, it’s been very good for his career and the power of bureaucrats in general, but the emergency is over. The Hawai‘i state Supreme Court

 to former Gov. Ige’s state of Covid emergency as of March 26, 2022. 

“WHEREAS, COVID-19 is a highly infectious disease that has caused over 2,000 deaths in Hawai’i and continues to cause hospitalization of Hawai‘i residents …”

” and as of now, the 7-day average for “hospitalized ICU Covid-19 patients” is four. The 7-day average of new admissions with Covid-19 is also four.

Some things are missing from that data, however. For example, are these ICU patients in ICUs because of Covid, or for other reasons but also tested positive for Covid? Authorities consistently played fast and loose with that distinction to justify their Covid policies.

Also missing is any sense of scale or context. What proportion of hospital care is going to Covid patients that would require any emergency proclamations?

for 2022, the most recent full year available, Hawai‘i’s hospitals saw: 

That’s 102,187 hospital admissions in a year. Assuming 2024 turns out much the same, how many admissions could have a Covid dimension? 

The state Covid-19 Hospitalization Metrics site doesn’t give a running total, it provides 7-day averages. The highest 7-day average so far this year was a peak of 65 hospitalized Covid patients during Aug. 27 to Sep. 2. Let’s err on the side of caution and say, in the worst-case scenario, if every week of 2025 were at that average, we’d see 3,380 Covid admissions (65 times 52). But we won’t get anywhere near that number as no other week has been so high and many weeks have averages as low as 8 or 12.

But assuming potentially 3,380 Covid admissions, that works out to about, at most, 3% of all admissions we might see this year, and most likely the total will be lower. And, again, we’re talking about data that is not clearly distinguishing which patients were admitted for some other health problem but who also tested positive for Covid.

None of this math is in Green’s proclamation, nor these links to his own agency’s data. The proclamation proceeds from an intention for us all to stay, emotionally, in 2020 forever.

“WHEREAS, the COVID-19 pandemic strained the state’s health care system and negatively impacted the state’s economy …”

That was then. Where is the strain now? And excuse me, Doctor Governor, but the pandemic didn’t negatively impact the state’s economy alone, the decision of policymakers around the world to initiate lockdowns did most of that. I’ve yet to see local politicians even attempt to account for the costs of their lockdowns, economically, or in health and education impacts in Hawai‘i.

I’ll skip ahead to the action this proclamation really takes, which is to suspend state laws regarding vaccinations, laws which require that vaccines here will be administered “in accordance with the recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices of the United States Department of Health and Human Services.”

This is what Green and the other governors of the West Coast Health Alliance are actually doing: suspending the state laws that bind them to federal rules. Whether or not they can legally do so is exactly what Green’s Attorney General declined to answer. The 

 of the U.S. Constitution says that federal law preempts state law, but here we have states defying administrative rules. Someone will have to draw a line from the rule-making aspect of these agencies to the authority invested in them by Congress.

If I were a pharmacist, I’d be on the phone with my lawyer and my malpractice insurance agent to ask, “Am I really safe going along with this? What kind of protection does this proclamation really give me?”

Bottom line: Green has presented no compelling evidence for why pharmacists in 2025 should keep administering a vaccine to people who don’t need it, for a pandemic that is long since over, in an emergency that isn’t emergent. This isn’t science-based, it's tribal. Trump said one thing, so these governors have to say the opposite.

As for the actions they’ve taken, there’s something tragically funny about Democrat governors forming a regional alliance — a kind of confederacy, if you will — to defy a Republic administration.

[{"type":"text","text":"What’s next, secession? "}]

A. Kam Napier is editor in chief of Aloha State Daily. His opinions in Pipikaula Corner are his own and not reflective of the ASD team. 

mana vaccine I Stock 2197154058

<title>Pipikaula Corner: Dr. Gov. Josh Green, patron saint of perpetual pandemic</title>

A deep dive into Gov. Josh Green's recent emergency proclamation defying federal rules on Covid vaccines.

Pipikaula Corner: Dr. Gov. Josh Green, patron saint of perpetual pandemic

Kelli Shiroma Braiotta Headshot

Kelli Shiroma Braiotta

Food & Dining

Everyone’s looking to save money and get the most bang for their buck. This series will show you where you can save while still savoring a good meal.

[{"type":"text","text":"You can take advantage of this $9.99 jajangmyeon for a limited time."}]

 features Korean-Chinese cuisine; the restaurant opened on Sept. 10 in the former space of Maple Garden on Isenberg Street. As part of its grand opening special, the eatery is offering its popular jajangmyeon — chewy noodles in a thick, sweet-and-savory black bean sauce — for $9.99 all day.

We avoided visiting the eatery during peak lunch hours. We recently went for a later lunch — around 1 p.m. — and did not have to wait long to get a table or place our order. 

The eatery features more than 100 dishes; the menu includes a variety of soups, appetizers, beef and chicken entrees, veggie dishes, seafood, noodles and more.

The deep-fried shrimp toast ($18) has quickly become a customer favorite. It’s great for sharing if you’re dining with a group. The crispy toast contrasts nicely with the creamy shrimp filling.

You can enjoy the jajamyeon a la carte to take advantage of the $9.99 price. The noodles are made in-house and boast a delectably chewy texture. The sauce is thick and flavorful — and there’s an ample amount to coat the noodles.

However, if you’re there on a weekday, check out the lunch combos, which are served from 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. on weekdays only. Lunch combos include your choice of jajangmyeon or jjamppong (a spicy seafood soup, known for its red broth) plus an entrée; they range from $24 to $26. Popular options include sweet and sour pork combo ($24), fried shrimp with hot sauce combo ($24) and mapo tofu combo ($24).

[{"type":"text","text":"Customer parking is available in the restaurant's lot."}]

Open 11 a.m.-9 p.m. Tuesdays-Sundays (closed Mondays)

Hong Yeon black been noodles 092425

<title>Budget Bites: $9.99 jajangmyeon for a limited time</title>

Korean-Chinese eatery Hong Yeon celebrated its opening on Sept. 10. As part of its grand opening special, the restaurant is offering its popular jajangmyeon for $9.99 until the end of the month.

Budget Bites: $9.99 jajangmyeon for a limited time

Five decades ago, women didn't have approval to race with outrigger canoes across the Ka‘iwi Channel. Men believed the 40.8 mile trek was too strenuous, and therefore dangerous. 

That changed in 1975, when a pair of crews in Healani Canoe Club and Team Onipa‘a both crossed. The accomplishment of both crews led to the creation of Na Wahine O Ke Kai, which has been held on an annual basis since 1979, with only a handful of exceptions. Extreme conditions led to cancellations in 1980 and 2015, while the COVID-19 pandemic and Maui Wildfires meant no iterations of Na Wahine O Ke Kai from 2020 to 2023 were held. 

Fifty years later, the spirit of the initial 1975 race lives on. The event, initially called "Women of the Sea" before officially becoming Na Wahine O Ke Kai in 1979, continues to serve as an important celebration of women and Hawaiian culture. 

"It means a lot," Georgette Reis-Moniz tells Aloha State Daily. When she was a senior at Kailua High School, Reis-Moniz was one of the original competitors in the 1975 event, competing for Healani. "Women were always kapu from a lot of things. But actually, we're the heart and soul of everything. 

"You look at the young kids, I just get all teary-eyed, because what they have now, we never had. We had to fight for it. And when we was in the boat, those days, they made you rest."

The 2025 Na Wahine O Ke Kai is set to take place on Sunday, beginning at 

Hale O Lono Harbor on Moloka‘i. Each canoe, which consists of six paddlers, will paddle 40.8 miles across the Ka‘iwi channel for a race that ends in 

Over 1,000 paddlers competed in the 2024 Na Wahine O Ke Kai, which was won by O‘ahu-based Team Bradley, who crossed the finish line in approximately five hours and 45 minutes. Before the unplanned hiatus from 2020 to 2023, Team Bradley won four straight titles. Heading into Sunday, they'll head into the race as five-time defending champions. 

While the goal for many is to finish first, finishing in itself is viewed as a worthwhile accomplishment to competitors. 

"That is like the greatest feeling," says Lisa Kaluhiwa, who is set to compete with Keahiakahoe Canoe Club on Sunday. "Let's say you didn't come in first place or 10th place or top 25 but you finished. It's an accomplishment, and it's hard to explain, but it's something inside that you're so proud of yourself that you crossed the Ka‘iwi channel and you went from the island of Moloka‘i 41 miles down to O‘ahu. That is an accomplished in itself, no matter what place you came in."

As one of the self-described senior members of the team, Kaluhiwa says she's seen her share of first-time competitors over the years. She tells them to embrace the moment, which stems from months of preparation. 

"The advice I tend to give to them is hydrate, hydrate, hydrate," Kaluhiwa said. "Stay focused. Battle hard, but have fun.

"It's just a wonderful feeling. Being part Hawaiian, and living here in Hawai‘i, it's amazing to just see how the culture is still thriving and moving forward."

 for our free Daily Edition newsletter. ASD is a sponsor of this yearʻs Na Wahine O Ke Kai.

Hawai‘i Scene on Social: Fruitful tree

Kady Pascual

Social Media Editor

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Hawai‘i Scene on Social: Fruitful tree

Authors

Kady Pascual

Social Media Editor

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