Ranked choice voting in Honolulu, part 1: Analysis of a possible game change

Honolulu voters will soon weigh a 2032 shift to a single-election ranked choice system for its mayor, city council members and prosecuting attorney. In this two-part series, ASD columnist Peter S. Adler explains how ranked choice voting works, and explores the arguments for and against it.

PSAP
Peter S. Adler, PhD

October 15, 2026less than a minute read

ranked choice voting
(Generated via Firefly AI)

Elections in Hawai‘i, like most in the United States, tend to be emotional and complicated. In general, they are dominated by Republican and Democratic inter-party squabbles, which often erupt into titanic national posturing. As Will Rogers, cowboy humorist and political raconteur, put it a century ago: “I tell you Folks, all Politics is Apple Sauce.”  Elections and electioneering are mushy.

Nationally, there appears to be mounting frustration with both national political parties. Some voters seem fatigued by a predominantly two-party system, and polls seem to show a possible openness to change. Knowing we might be a little different here, does this hold true in Hawai‘i?  Voters in the City and County of Honolulu may find out when staring down one particular question within a set proposed charter amendments in November.

At a minimum, this is a once-in-a-decade opportunity. Number five of the 20 proposals listed by the Charter Commission will ask voters on O‘ahu to decide if its voter-selected officials — the mayor, city council members, and the prosecuting attorney — should be elected using ranked choice voting. If approved, the change would take effect in 2032 at the earliest.

At the moment, ranked choice voting appears to have been used or has been approved for upcoming public elections in 49 U.S. jurisdictions, including 36 cities, three counties, and Maine and Alaska statewide. Several jurisdictions employ ranked choice voting ballots for military and overseas voters. Hawaiʻi Revised Statutes §11-100 already requires ranked choice voting for federal elections held outside regularly scheduled primary or general election dates, and for special elections to fill vacant county council seats.

Interestingly, ranked choice voting also appears outside government elections: About 100 American colleges and universities use it in some student-government elections. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences uses ranked ballots to determine most Oscar nominees; it also uses ranked-choice tabulation to select the Best Picture winner. Ranked, point-based ballots also select the Heisman Trophy winner as well as that of Major League Baseball’s Cy Young Award.

National democracy-reform advocacy organizations argue that ranked choice voting can broaden voter choice and strengthen representation. FairVote, for example, strongly endorses ranked choice voting; Common Cause sees it  as a solution to growing voter disengagement. 

Prominent politicians on both sides of the aisle, including Mitt Romney, Cory Booker, Jamie Raskin, and Joe Manchin have appeared to offer varying degrees of support of ranked choice voting. Romney, for example, expressed qualified support in 2023, while Raskin introduced federal ranked choice voting  legislation in 2025.

However, opposition has also grown. States have enacted a patchwork of restrictions on ranked choice voting, including statewide prohibitions in at least 13 states as of May 2025. The National Conference of State Legislatures tracks state laws governing ranked choice voting, including state restrictions and local-use provisions. In some states, statutes neither expressly authorize nor expressly prohibit ranked choice voting, leaving the extent of local authority unsettled. Michael Greibrok and Madeline Malisa of the Foundation for Government Accountability believe ranked choice voting is misguided, writing, “Lawmakers who want to protect ballots and the will of the people should pass legislation to ban ranked-choice voting statewide and for all local elections.”

One of the indicators on Guild Consulting’s Hawai‘i Dashboard speaks directly to the situation in our state. The Dashboard is an evolving, publicly accessible, and free resource indicating how Hawai‘i stacks up against other states on 27 different measures; it draws data from federal agencies and established nonpartisan research organizations. Its selected indicators are intended to encourage comparison and discussion, not to prove that particular policies cause particular outcomes.

As it turns out, Hawai‘i scores better than many states on measures such as our rate of unemployment, rainy day fund balance as a percent of annual general fund spending, and suicide per capita. Nonetheless, Hawaiʻi is dead last (No. 50 of 50) when it comes to voter participation. Only 50.3% of eligible Hawaiʻi voters cast a ballot in the 2024 general election. Turnout for the August 2026 primary (ballots cast divided by registered voters) was about 33.2%, marginally higher than the state’s record-low 32.3% primary turnout in 2024.

As you can see in our Voter Participation Rate chart, Hawai‘i, at 50.3% ranked lowest in the nation in the 2024 general election. For comparison, Wisconsin ranked No. 1, with a 76.7% voter participation rate. The nation's median rate was 64.7%.

Most state legislative incumbents won handily in the recent primary, a longstanding “same–same” pattern in Hawai‘i. There were a few exceptions: Incumbent Sen. Les Ihara lost by more than 30 percentage points. Sen. Kurt Fevella tied Bob McDermott and subsequently lost the drawing that determined the Republican nomination. Rep. Kanani Souza similarly tied challenger Sheila Medeiros but lost when lots were cast.

So how does ranked choice voting actually work?

While ranked choice voting procedures vary among jurisdictions, the basic process is straightforward. All qualifying candidates appear on the ballot, and voters rank candidates in order of preference. During the initial tabulation round, the first-choice votes on all valid ballots are counted. If one candidate receives an outright majority of votes cast, that candidate wins. If no candidate receives more than 50% of votes cast, the last-place candidate is eliminated from further contention.

Hence in the next tabulation round, each ballot that had presented the just-eliminated candidate as the top choice is re-counted using instead the ballot’s next-highest-ranked candidate still in contention. Each ballot already tabulated for a candidate who remains in the race is tabulated as it was in the prior round.

The process repeats until a candidate wins under the applicable rules, generally by receiving a majority of active ballots (not necessarily of all cast ballots) in a tabulation round.

The upcoming Honolulu Charter Amendment question 5, as written, describes this as a process to be conducted “in a single November election,” and its supplemental information notes that voters may “rank any number of candidates in the order they prefer.”  A valid ballot nonetheless becomes exhausted if every candidate ranked on it has been eliminated; such a ballot  may have counted in earlier rounds but would no longer impact the final tabulation deciding the winner of the election.

Are O‘ahu voters hungry for a change?  Would ranked choice voting, if adopted and suitably clarified and understood by voters, become a viable system that makes a satisfying difference?

Question 5 will offer an important conceptual choice. If adopted, the proposal directs the city clerk to prepare rules and implement a public education program which clearly addresses important operational nuances, such as ballot design, recounts, certification procedures, and treatment of skipped rankings, ties, and exhausted ballots. The public should be able to see and comment on those rules before implementation, as Honolulu’s charter provides that public-facing administrative rules generally require public notice, a public hearing, and mayoral approval.

Whether or not question 5 passes in November, it presents a special opportunity to think collectively about how local governance could be elected. Ranked choice voting has pros and cons and deserves the analysis, discussion, and debate I’ll cover in Part 2, including a closer look at the arguments for and against the process and what the available evidence says about its potential effects on participation, civility, and representation.

Peter S. Adler of Guild Consulting can be reached on peter@guild.im. The Hawai‘i Dashboard presents a new You know Hawaiʻi? question every day.


For the latest news of Hawai‘i, sign up here for our free Daily Edition newsletter.

Authors

PSAP

Peter S. Adler, PhD

Peter Adler is a Guild Consulting partner; he specializes in foresight, strategy, and negotiated problem-solving and has extensive experience in conflict management, public policy and multi-party dialogue. He and his colleagues are occasional columnists for Aloha State Daily; the views expressed are their own.