Hawai‘i residents should prepare for a stronger than average hurricane season, warn state and county officials.
An early outlook by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that the Eastern and Central Pacific Ocean could see anywhere between five to 13 tropical cyclones this hurricane season. NOAA meteorologist John Bravender said an average year sees around four or five cyclones.
The stronger storm season is due to a developing El Niño event, Bravender said. El Niño, part of a cyclically shifting global weather pattern, is marked by warmer waters in equatorial Pacific waters.
The second-most active Pacific hurricane season on record, in 2015, was caused by the last strong El Niño event. That year saw 26 named storms, the most since 1992.
This year, Bravender said, ocean temperatures are starting a bit cooler than in 2015, so meteorologists are not predicting quite so busy a storm season. However, he added, it is difficult to predict how intense an El Niño event will be this far in advance, so the number of cyclones generated this year will depend on how quickly or gradually ocean temperatures rise.
Bravender added that NOAA’s estimates only consider how many storms might be generated this year, not how powerful those storms may be or whether they strike Hawai‘i.
Nonetheless, state and county officials have urged residents to begin preparations for the hurricane season now. Quoting Sun Tzu, Maj. Gen. Stephen Logan, director of the Hawai‘i Emergency Management Agency, said “Plan for what is difficult while it is easy, do what is great while it is small.”
Gov. Josh Green advised residents to have at least 14 days of non-perishable food and water on hand in case access to supplies is cut. Residents should make sure they have extra batteries, sufficient food for pets, and copies of important documents kept in safe places.
Bravender suggested that residents begin stockpiling food piecemeal in order to defray the cost.
Elton Ushio, administrator of the Kaua‘i Emergency Management Agency, said households should discuss ahead of time whether their priority is to shelter in place or evacuate in the event of a severe storm.
Ushio said that a well-constructed home that’s up to code should be sufficient shelter in most storms. But residents of a home that isn’t up to standards, or that’s located in a flood zone or along a coast susceptible to storm surges, should seek more secure refuges, either among friends and family or at public shelters.
However, Ushio added that public shelters will be crowded and will not have many services available for users: residents will be responsible for their own food, and their pets will need to remain caged.
Furthermore, many shelters have not been designed to withstand hurricanes. HIEMA Administrator James Barros said the state is compiling a list of hurricane-safe shelters.
Following the severe Kona Low storms in March, Green said teams and high-water vehicles are being preemptively positioned around flood-sensitive areas.
“We’ve gotten adept at dealing with storms,” Green said, noting that the 2023 Lahaina wildfires were triggered by Hurricane Dora, a storm that never directly contacted the Islands, but whipped up winds to quickly spread the flames.
Residents are also urged to sign up for alerts from HIEMA and their respective county emergency management agencies.
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